L2 Mid-Season Managerial Changes | Vital Football

L2 Mid-Season Managerial Changes

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Can't remember if I posted this previously back when Harris was sacked but I think its still a worthwhile and perhaps relevant read.

Below is a link to a Bradford City fan site article (written around when Hughes was sacked) that goes into quite some detail with regards to the very low success of changing managers mid-season in League Two. Over the past 19 seasons where 76 teams have been promoted, only six of those were promoted on the basis of changing manager mid-season. MK Dons may just make that seven from 80 this season of course, but previous to that, the most recent team to get promoted with a manager change was Burton Albion in 2014/15 when Gary Rowett left to become Birmingham manager and JFH took over.

Why do I bring this up? Well there is clearly a division amongst the fanbase and this board as to whether Clemence is given the summer to start with his own ideas or whether we should cut loose and have a fresh take going into the new season. Now I'm not suggesting what should happen either way currently, but it is very interesting at how low the numbers of mid-season changes prove to be more fruitful. So for me, the board has an incredibly big decision to make very soon, do they persist half heartedly with SC and run the risk of saying its not working early in the season like they did with NH and starting the process for looking for a new manager? Do we cut loose and start a fresh with a new manager/Head Coach and see where that takes us? Or does SC prove he can do it as a number one and lead us to a title winning season?

One thing is clear from the article though of whatever decision is made, stability in some format is required and unless we're in a dire position fighting relegation, we may just need to not get trigger happy with whoever is in charge.

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Changing your manager mid season in League Two – the bare facts

Bradford City are hoping to go against modern League Two history in changing manager mid-season in the quest for promotion.
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I agree that is interesting but somewhat to be expected as managers are not normally sacked or resign if things are going well, and usually not just because the club want to move a better manager in, which exceptionally appears to be what BG thought he was doing, even if it turned out he had not identified or secured his man.

Often the change is made due to an alarming lack (or loss) of form and the odds will therefore be against the new man being able to arrest the decline in a relatively short time, with the majority of the same players. Like trying to do a U Turn in a juggernaut, so as to speak.

Credit therefore goes to Williamson at MK for beating the odds, if he manages it.

No coincidence that Pulis, Stimson and Allen were there from the start of their promotion seasons though, having had a full summer to recruit.
 
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As I mentioned on another thread, sacking a manager mid term is seen as the fastest way of shutting up fans who are not impressed with performances. It's quick and kicks the can down the road while everyone is distracted from the problem to speculate about who the new guy might be.
We have done it many times and it almost never turns failure to success especially when inheriting a previous managers struggling side.
Is the manager truly to blame? Particularly if he was not involved in the putting together of that squad. Can the recruitment team take the blame if the players who looked good on paper, struggle to live up to the hype and promise that preceded their arrival? Can the owners be blamed for under- investing, despite fair play rules and a stated aim to run the club sustainably. Could it be the fans who expect and demand 100% from day one and, unsurprisingly, rarely get it so take to picking on individuals and unsettling everyone else.
I am all for SC putting his own side together to play the way he wants. He's now had a season to see first hand what this league is all about. He will have learned and know what is required. If he can't prepare a team to challenge next season with the backing he has publicly recieved from the owners then he will have nowhere to hide.
If Hurtado, Hutton and Andrews are examples of players who he can help bring to the club then I can see why Brad wants to give him the chance and we should all get behind that.
 
nibbles said:
I’m pretty sure there’s more to it than that, particularly in the case of sacking Neil Harris.
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True, but that was new owners inheriting a manager they did not choose. In the same way Clemence inherited a team he did not choose. That's why I'm ok with SC staying.
Brad would have read the many comments from fans who were highly critical of the NH style of play. I didn't understand the sacking but it certainly shut those fans up.
 
What is the SC style of play. Negative aspects:
Dont improve the shape, dont improve the game plan, keep passing the ball slowly from side to side.
When losing, dont throw people up and go for a win.
What are the positives?

Do we believe that bringing in a TP or MA type would not have at least improved us a little bit?

Just asking for a friend
:fish:
 
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Vambogills said:
I didn't understand the sacking but it certainly shut those fans up.
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Did it? It created more noise than if he’d simply kept Harris in post.

I’m sure there have been managerial sackings at least partly influenced by fan discontent but the vast majority of sackings will have been thought through (not always very well) and based on short and long term prospects of success.
 
Vambogills said:
Brad would have read the many comments from fans who were highly critical of the NH style of play. I didn't understand the sacking but it certainly shut those fans up.
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True, for a while. And it would buy time but I am starting to detect rumblings again, and I do not even follow any of the Facebook groups.

The current scoring rate under SC is just a fraction above NH and a fraction below KM, even with the benefit of a target man that the others didn't have. Passes have increased but mostly of the sideways and backwards variety.

The X posts from BG after the Harrogate and Bradford games tend to suggest he is still reading fans comments or at least Matt's GITB content, as well as seeing what is in front of his eyes.
 
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On the topic of the Harris sacking, saw this post on one of the Facebook groups recently:-
“We never intended to sack him. Livermore sacked and from this Harris went”.
Which ties into some of the theories at the time.
 
GillsBluenose said:
True, for a while. And it would buy time but I am starting to detect rumblings again, and I do not even follow any of the Facebook groups.

The current scoring rate under SC is just a fraction above NH and a fraction below KM, even with the benefit of a target man that the others didn't have. Passes have increased but mostly of the sideways and backwards variety.

The X posts from BG after the Harrogate and Bradford games tend to suggests he is still reading fans comments or at least Matt's GITB content, as well as seeing what is in front of his eyes.
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Brad clearly does read social media stuff. It gives him a simple overview of social media users opnions, some of whom may not even attend games. Basically, we win and 70% of fans express their joy. We lose and 150% of 'fans' express their fear and loathing.
SC has had dogs abuse as the season drifted and of course those fans want him out. They don't care that he did not choose this squad. They want somene else, anyone else. I'm ready for the same tired old list of suggested managers to be rolled out again. It's not what we need and thankfully I think Brad will not defer from his public backing.

PS. % figures are just suggested of course but you get my drift!
 
Not really true about 70% happy online when we win.
Social media, even on this forum is often quiet when we win but goes off the scale if we lose.
Good victory equals dozens of comments
Narrow defeat equals hundreds of comments
 
I wonder, will our new data analytics approach steer decisions about whether to keep or change the manager?

I think managers often get the boot after a run of results that, while bad on the face of it, is not really much of a deviation from the statistical norm. (Say you go LLLLLL, rather than the expected WDLWDL only four of the six defeats are divergent and football is often a game of fine margins.) A new man comes in, the results go the other way for a while, to even things up. Like the opposite of the so-called manager of the month curse. He's probably not the new Pep just because the team won four in a row.

There are exceptions but unless one manager is either useless or a genius, I don't believe changing mid-season will dramatically alter the general direction. Stats I saw (but can't cite from memory) about teams near the bottom of the Premier League support this view. And so has this season for us, Bradford and Salford. We'll see in a few weeks whether it worked better for FGR, Colchester and Sutton.
 
Jerryattrick said:
What is the SC style of play. Negative aspects:
Dont improve the shape, dont improve the game plan, keep passing the ball slowly from side to side.
When losing, dont throw people up and go for a win.
What are the positives?

Do we believe that bringing in a TP or MA type would not have at least improved us a little bit?

Just asking for a friend
:fish:
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I'll repeat myself again(!) but if you listen to him, he is NOT advocating that.
You can hear him on the touch line asking them to move the ball quicker - I have on numerous occasions.

Just because the players don't always do it, doesn't mean he's not trying to instil it. We need to move on from this...
 
NWBluesFan said:
I'll repeat myself again(!) but if you listen to him, he is NOT advocating that.
You can hear him on the touch line asking them to move the ball quicker - I have on numerous occasions.

Just because the players don't always do it, doesn't mean he's not trying to instil it. We need to move on from this...
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I think that kind of football comes from (lack of) confidence more than anything else. Play the ball quickly forwards and you are more likely to lose the ball. Pass it sideways or backwards and possession is at least retained.
Although then what normally happens is after it’s been passed back, Max pumps it long towards Hawkins, and we lose possession anyway.!
 
Lark said:
Same as here then basically? :p
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Better class of rumour and bollocks on here though.


And for the record, I am still unconvinced by SC. However, if he gets the summer to assemble a squad then he should get the full season to try and bring success with them.

Barring a disaster and bottom by new year scenario.
 
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